Now is a bad
time to jump to too many conclusions about “the new normal”, and believe that
we know what it is or is going to be.
Now is a good
time to think through:
- How
may we be impacted by global, market, societal, economic, technological, community,
family and individual lifestyle, well-being trends. What are the focal issues?
- With
regard to each focal issue, what are the driving forces at play (or waiting in
the wings), what critical uncertainties can be identified, and what alternative
scenarios should be formulated?
- For
each scenario, what are the implications and responses that may be called for,
and what contingency and other plans should be put in place now?
An
unexpected ‘side effect’ of scenario work is that participants develop
‘memories of the future’, which boosts readiness as well as equips them with
better ‘present’ capabilities.
In the past I’ve
been responsible for Shell’s scenario planning, and would love the opportunity
to talk to you about how much a sound scenario formation process can benefit your
organisation. And your people.
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